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Showing posts with the label gbpusd analysis

Sterling rally on unemployment news

Unemployment data came as expected which shows there is no damaging effect  from brexit and sterling rallied almost 40 pips to 1.2640$ completing the recovery from yesterday's low at 1.2503$ . However the rally stalled at previous strong support , now a strong resistance, 1.2640$ area. The pair is expected to retrace from here to below 1.26$ again. If we break above 1.2660$ , we might reach as far as 1.2720$ You may risk going long from 1.2560$ area with stoploss on 1h candle close below 1.2540$ . Brexit news will remain the main catalyst for sterling moves and market volatility .

Updates on brexit news

austria's bluemel says deal on the table is the best possible solution, not a good idea to re-start negotiations . Todays key event is the unemployment report; as of now, the unemployment rate in the uk stands at 4.1 percent and median estimate suggests it is likely to remain same. gbpusd is currently trading around 1.26$ , next resistance lies at 1.2640$ followed by 1.2670$ while support lies at 1.2540-60$ . Theresa may postponed the vote of parliament on brexit deals she had with brussels and donald tusk stated that this deal or no deal , looks like there will be no more negotiations and we are very close to no deal or may be canceling brexit at all which only needs decision from the uk without getting back to european union. Personally , I expect there will ve no confidence vote soon or theresa may will resign first.

GBP heading towards 1.25$

GBP/USD rallied to 1.2840 and reversed sharply to trade now at 1.2720$ . Brexit vote in the house of commons will be on 11 dec. And it will be terribly volatile afterwards. Check out the diagram below to find out the possible scenarios from the brexit vote on dec. 11 , anyway before then I am sure sterling will visit 1.25$

When can you buy $gbpusd ?

Only if it closes above 1.2720$ on the 1h chart and i think this is gonna happen soon The pair is extremely bearish and there is no sign of upward correction as long as we are below 1.2720$ ... Buy and hold for 1.28$ handle. Resistance areas : 1.2750, 1.2830,1.2925

Gbpusd broke the trendline

We had a falling trendline on the 1h chart which managed to keep the pair bound for four times . It managed to break above it after reversing the sharp dip after the federal reserve raised the interest rates last night. The pair is currently trading at 1.3390$ with very strong support at 1.3340$ First target will he 1.3530$ area.

Gbpusd well supported at 1.3340$

The pair rebounded sharply twice from the 1.3340$ area . And it should hold and we might see a rally towards 1.37$ mark during this month. So keep holding your sterlings unless we break below 1.3280$

Nzd and aud should reverse

Both aussie and kiwi are not my favorites for trading. Although they seem easy to analyze , however both need patience and easy nerve. Both have rallied since the beginning of june , NZD/USD stalling at current level and possible reversal this week. I am short at current level 0.7220$ and my stop loss will be any daily close above 0.7220$... I am also short on aussie for a reversal from 0.7560$ area, both trades are initiated by dollar reversal and commodities reversalnas well. Dollar is turning bullish and uk election results will drive the majors to new low in june... Going long on cable will be at 1.2540-80$ area targeting 1.2730$

GBPUSD Reversal

Last week , the pair rallied after bottoming three times at 1.2830$ , reaching 1.3050$ However , looking at the big picture , 1.30$ handle is big game now for sterling and we have bearish trendline still intact. Shorting the pair at current level might bring you big reward , we might go down till 1.2680$ within the next few weeks.  

Trade ideas for GBP/USD

Here is what I see for GBPUSD only in-case of a daily close above the area 1.248-1.2520$ . We will see a rally towards the area between 1.29-1.31$ and then a test of the 1.2680$ area for continuation of the up trend . On the other side , If we see an hourly close below 1.2340$ , we will roll back to 1.2230-50$ area...If we see a break below this area , then we are going to below 1.20$ again. So , Possible trades here are , long above 1.2520$ (daily close)  targeting 1.29-1.31$ Short below 1.2340$ (hourly close) , targeting 1.2250$.. You can also long the pair at this area again at 1.2250$ area with sl on hourly close below the trend line. And going short on the break of that line targeting 1.2080$ and below if it doesn't hold.

GBPUSD : Between the support and resistance

Sterling almost regained all the pips lost after the BOE announced a rate cut and the intention for more rate cuts this year. The pair was trading in a 1 hour channel which was broken today after reaching the top of the bigger falling channel on the 4h chart . So we have two channels in play now , uprising one which was rejected by the resistance line at 1.3270$ and went to find support at the 200 MA on 30 min chart and the base of the channel at 1.3170$ . The pair bounced 20 pips from the support , however I expect a break of the uprising channel and break of the support at 1.3170$ area. While the markets are waiting for any clues from janet yellen tomorrow at the jackson hole symposium , the pair will react violently to any hints about rate hike from the federal reserve . Personally , I believe we might see a rate hike in september . Anyway , we have two scenarios and possible trades here : First one : long the pair on the close above resistance trend line possibly at 1.3250$ ....