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Showing posts with the label interest rates

Buy Euro and hold

Hello everyone ,  Euro/Usd pulled back from 1.2250$ just 100 pips below multi year high and testing 1.1770$ area. This area is going to hold any break below and will definitely give support a bullish trend to build up to break above 1.2350$ area. Immediate strong resistance for the pair would be 1.1970$ followed by 1.2140$ Start buying large now and build up till 1.2140$ then hold for a bullish run till 1.3470$

December rate hike probability update

Odds of a hike at the December meeting are creeping lower (just 16 bps now priced into the Dec. 18-19 meeting OIS) * The outlook for 2019 is turning dovish with just an additional 36 bps (around 1.5 hikes total) priced into December 2019 FOMC where the hike path hits a peak * Almost 10 bps of cuts and now priced into the first half of 2020, quite a turnaround

Eurusd rally is not over

Eurusd is trading currently at 1.1635$ , up almost 50 pips from last night close. As recommended earlier last friday , long the euro to 1.20$ , however I will be advising short term trades as well , all of them will be on the buy side ofcourse , because you can not against the flow. Keep following for updates. The low on the day is 1.1578$ , high is 1.1645$ , the pair is currently testing a bearish trendline and it has to be broken before the euro continues its rally towards 1.20$ Next strong resistance is 1.1740$ which acted as 4 tops , and we have strong support at 1.1540$ .... Maybe we will trade the 200 pips for one more round but i really doubt it . I expect tge break of 1.1740$ next time it is gonna be tested.

Buy gbpusd at 1.3250$

Gbpusd has made several tops at 1.3440$ and reversed to 1.3250$ currently. The fall was initiated by draghi , the head of ECB lowering growth forecast from  2.4% to 2.1% and keeping interest at all time low. Brexit negotiations are ofcourse the main blame or fame for any move in Gbp/usd Technically speaking , 1.3250$ is very important support for the pait and if broken , the pair will be terribly bearish and might head towards 1.3080$ area . On the upside , 1.3340$ is a tough resistance for the pair .

Usdjpy might rally to 112.40¥

Usdjpy is trying hardly break the downtrend line from 118¥ high after trump winning presidency in November 2016. The pair is currently trading at 110.65¥ , it might keep gaining to reach 112.40¥ area before reversing back again. I would like to short the pair at 112.40¥ area , it will be really profitable trade with very low risk.

Sell usdcad

Tomorrow , Thursday , is the day you sell usdcad at whatever level you want. Probably at 1.3030-3130 , i know this is a big range , but it will pay off hugely . The fed raised and there is still scope for 2 more hikes this year. There will be some dollar strength of course today and tomorrow before we see a reversal Shortly , i will post a recommendation for trading usdjpy as well.

Usdjpy analysis update

Dear traders , The pair broke the daily trend and the 200 DMA (daily moving average) and is currently testing a very important area as well which is 200 week moving average and weekly support area at 110.20¥ , which might support the pair and help it recover a modest recovery in short term to 112.20¥ The pair is seen trading between 105¥ and 116¥ during 2017 , it will be kind of range pattern rather than trending. It is still not clear wether the pair will maintain its pullish trend after trump victory back in november and its 1800 pips rally. So the pullback to 110¥ is very logical action and we might find more decline to 105¥ Choose your trading strategy wisely based on your trading behavior.

Usd/jpy : trump effect close to fading

The pair is showing some weakness around 108.50¥ which is 200 week moving average and weekly resistance. Targets of shorting the pair at that level would be 106.80¥ then 103.50¥ areas. However it is not recommended to short the pair now until it confirms a bearish resumption The pair might continue its rally to 110.60¥ and that level would be very good short entry for a long term trade. My overview for the pair is bearish and targeting 83¥ on the long term.